Copenhagen: There Is No Plan B

Posted on 19. Oct, 2009 by Ross in Asia, Climate Change, Europe, Government Policy, North America

At a time when the US is stalling for more time in order to bring it’s own (rather unambitious) climate change cap-and-trade legislation to the negotiating table, UK prime minister Gordon Brown has delivered the European view.

The Copenhagen climate change talks are still the last chance: we have 50 days to set the course of the next 50 years.

Gordon Brown warned that the world is on the brink of a “catastrophic” future of killer heatwaves, floods and droughts unless governments speed up negotiations which have languished due to foot-dragging by the US and Australia. He stated that there was no ‘Plan B’.

In every era there are only one or two moments when nations come together and reach agreements that make history, because they change the course of history. Copenhagen must be such a time. There are now fewer than 50 days to set the course of the next 50 years and more.

If we do not reach a deal at this time, let us be in no doubt: once the damage from unchecked emissions growth is done, no retrospective global agreement in some future period can undo that choice. By then it will be irretrievably too late.

The remarks were deliberately aimed to spur urgency on the other side of the Atlantic, where Barak Obama would appear to have lost too much domestic political capital to deliver a deal with other nations which Capitol Hill can support, as the Senate continue to stall over Congress’s American Clean Energy and Security Act.

By contrast, China and India have continued to make strong strides in their own commitments. China in particular seems to have played a masterful political game by setting the US up as the climate change failure scapegoat. Today, Indian environment minister Jairam Ramesh revealed to Reuters that his government’s position was now highly flexible despite the strong rhetoric previously issued from New Delhi:

If we say, let’s start with 25 percent [carbon reductions from industrialised countries], that’s a beginning. I’m not theological about this. It’s a negotiation. We have given a number of 40 but one has to be realistic… I tell you my prime minister has told me two days ago, ‘don’t block, be constructive…make sure there’s an agreement.’ What more can I say?

The change in government in Japan also helped moves to secure a deal in Copenhagen. The previous Japanese administration had been one of the countries most resistant to strong emissions reductions, with the World Wildlife Fund describing the 2% cut from Japan’s Kyoto commitment as ‘appalling’. Yukio Hatoyama’s new government was quick to reverse that stance, aiming for 25% Japanese carbon reductions from 1990 levels.

Growing support for finding a Copenhagen solution has emboldened Gordon Brown to start making stronger statements on the issue once more. Having committed his country to 34% emissions reductions - to be pushed through with legislation such as the CRC Energy Efficiency Scheme - the UK has been fighting to convince the rest of Europe on the levels of financing the developed world should commit to aiding developing countries in their fight against climate change, but the annual $100 billion figure supported by Gordon Brown has proved a major stalling point with EU negotiations.

However, the pace of the US legislationary progress is the largest stumbling block, made worse by frequent comments from Obama, energy secretary Steven Chu and others that the negotiating would go on past Copenhagen and that the forthcoming conference was not the be-all-and-end-all that it was once touted as. Hence Gordon Brown’s comments as a sharp reminder that the rest of the world appears to be working to the same timetable and that no country should assume or act otherwise.

Image of Gordon Brown by World Economic Forum @ Flickr