Global Demand For Energy To Rise 44 Percent By 2030, Says Energy Information Administration

Posted on 28. May, 2009 by Ross in Energy News

World Energy Consumption 2006-2030
The Energy Information Administration (EIA) - the USA’s primary energy forecasting agency - has announced predictions that global energy demand is set to soar by 44% over the next two decades. As a result, carbon emissions are expected to rise by 39% in the absence of control policies such as effective cap-and-trade schemes, and energy prices and the incidence of energy shortages are likely to rise as well.

The EIA report expects the biggest surges in demand to come from Russia, China and India, and predicts that although renewable energy sources will continue to see strong growth, the vast majority of the 77% increase in electricity generation will come from growth in the coal and gas industries.

Despite the current optimism in the political classes over nuclear power, the report predicts relatively lower growth (40%) for the industry. Most of that growth is predicted for China and India, the latter of which is expected to increase its nuclear capacity by 10% per year over the two decades.

The report also predicts bad news for those hoping for an end to high oil prices. The economic rebound and continuing world growth in demand for energy will result in oil prices rising to $110 per barrel by 2015, reaching $130 per barrel in 2030 (ignoring additional inflationary effects).

Rising demand for energy and fuels will raise prices internationally, as well as present countries with severe energy security issues. Western Europe will continue to be strongly dependant upon Russian oil and gas, with pipeline disputes with neighbours such as Ukraine continuing to disrupt supplies. China is considering strict mileage quotas for domestic vehicles in order to quell rising demand for oil: it currently imports 60% of its oil, mostly from unstable countries via US-controlled sea lanes.

The report acknowledges, however, that it makes little provision for effective government legislation to reduce carbon emissions. It admits that it’s predictions regarding the increasing use of coal would be particularly susceptible to an increase in carbon tariffs, cap-and-trade schemes and international co-operation on climate change, which in the light of the figures from this report truly clarifies what is at stake at the forthcoming Copenhagen Conference.

Image by BK59 @ Flickr