Kyoto 2.0 Set To Fall At The First Hurdle

Posted on 14. Apr, 2009 by Ross in Asia, Climate Change, Europe, Government Policy, North America, South America

With eight months to go before representatives from 170 countries attempt to agree on a follow-up to the Kyoto Climate Protocol at the Copenhagen Climate Convention, the early indications are that insurmountable differences between key players will prevent any dramatic new action to curb global carbon dioxide emissions.

Whilst much has already been made of the verbal environmental sparring between the US and China regarding greenhouse gas emission targets, cap-and-trade schemes and carbon import tariffs, India has now made its own stance crystal clear on the subject of carbon restrictions. An anonymous Indian climate change negotiator told the Washington Post that India will not support binding limits on its carbon dioxide emissions as part of a new global climate change treaty, saying that “it is morally wrong for us to agree to reduce when 40 percent of Indians do not have access to electricity.” India’s special envoy on climate change, Shyam Saran, said last week that he would oppose any effort by developed countries to impose carbon tariffs on industrial goods imported from countries that refused to limit carbon dioxide emissions, whilst Rajendra K. Pachauri, an Indian who heads the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, declared it to be “highly unlikely” that India will change its stance against limits on greenhouse gas emissions.

Brazil, able to boast of being one of the world’s greenest energy suppliers, is now jeopardising its moral high ground as it plans to fuel economic growth over the next 10 years with thermoelectric plants. Currently generating 46% of its energy needs from renewable sources (the global average is only 13%), Brazil has long been able to lecture Western and developing nations on their failure to act against climate change, but its new energy generation policy is set to increase energy generation from fossil fuels by 70%. Recent discoveries of vast undersea oil reserves off the south-east coast of the country also threaten Brazil’s green reputation should should their exploitation be sanctioned. The weakening of Brazil as an environmental advocate in the developing world could add to the difficulties faced by Copenhagen’s environmental negotiators.

Not all the troubling signs are emanating from the developing world, though. The United States may now find itself in the position of having a more pro-environment president in the shape of Barak Obama, but the difficulties faced in trying to push suitable environmental legislation through the House and Senate remain. The economic penalties implied by cap-and-trade schemes are proving to be anathema to American politicians seeking a swift return to economic prosperity, whilst the purely environmental aspects of green policies have always divided beyond party lines, with Democrats and Republicans often swayed more by what natural resources their states may or may not be able to exploit as opposed to notions of a ‘greater good’. It is also telling that the current proposals being readied for debate are titled the ‘American Clean Energy and Security Act’, yet again highlighting a need to package any ‘controversial’ legislation with more patriotic security measures.

But while the world’s populations continue to grow and politicians continue to defend fuelling that growth by whatever means necessary, climate scientists are now becoming convinced that the worst-case scenarios of 10 years ago are not now even the best case scenarios. From 261 respondents to a Guardian poll of attendees of the recent scientific conference in Copenhagen serving as a precursor to December’s key negiotiations, 39% believed the much-touted 2°C limit to rising global temperatures was now unachievable. Only 18% thought that the temperature rises would remain under that figure, whilst 46% thought the most likely outcome to be 3-4°C and 26 of the respondents believed that the world would shortly have to deal with a calamitous 4-6°C temperature rise.

Image © A6U571N on Flickr.