China Prepares For Carbon Intensity Targets In Copenhagen

Posted on 21. Apr, 2009 by Ross in Asia, Government Policy

In what could be a seismic step forward for the chances of success at this year’s Copenhagen conference, China has signalled that it is considering setting targets for carbon intensity - the ratio of carbon dioxide emissions to economic output. By doing so, China’s softened stance would likely be reciprocated by the USA, opening the way to a more effective resolution in Denmark as the world debates on the successor to the Kyoto treaty.

According to the Guardian, leading Chinese climate change negotiator Su Wei said that Chinese officials were considering introducing targets to limit energy and carbon intensity from 2011 to 2016. This proposal is strikingly at odds at China’s previous stance which has argued that the West has no right to expect developing countries to cut carbon emissions at the expense of the living standards of populations who hadn’t caused the problem in the first place. That stance - still espoused by India - was seen as the primary reason why the Copenhagen Climate Convention was likely to fail, and if China’s attitude towards carbon targets does relax then the Asian sub-continent is likely to find itself extremely isolated politically.

China adopting energy and carbon intensity targets is far from an emissions cut, however. Whilst the rest of the world is undergoing a recession, China’s economy is still expected to grow by 6% in 2009: a recession by Chinese standards, perhaps, but growth nonetheless. Estimates as to when China would be likely to realise an actual drop in overall carbon emissions remain a guessing game, with only the most optimistic looking as near as 2020.

Whilst the promise of carbon intensity targets gives China a stronger hand at the climate change table to force more concessions from the West, it is also in its own interests to do so. With energy efficiency seen as the key tool in Western economies in reducing carbon footprints, the energy saved by companies will aid their competitiveness and thereby reduce the relative financial attractiveness of Chinese manufacturing. Even in the absence of carbon trade tariffs, Western consumer legislation is likely to see the introduction of schemes such as carbon footprint labelling, putting carbon-intensive Chinese products at a marketing disadvantage. As the Chinese economy continues to grow, the need for greater energy supplies and infrastructure also grows, therefore by limiting energy intensity China lessens the number of new power stations that it must invest in too.

Whatever the internal motivations, however, a softening of China’s carbon stance will likely be a catalyst in seeing real environmental progress made around the table at Copenhagen in December.

Image by JuLiEn LoZeLLi at Flickr